Climate change reduces resilience to fire in subalpine rainforests

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dc.contributor.authorMariani, Men_AU
dc.contributor.authorFletcher, MSen_AU
dc.contributor.authorHaberle, SGen_AU
dc.contributor.authorChin, HJen_AU
dc.contributor.authorZawadzki, AWen_AU
dc.contributor.authorJacobsen, GEen_AU
dc.date.accessioned2025-03-06T01:54:21Zen_AU
dc.date.available2025-03-06T01:54:21Zen_AU
dc.date.issued2019-03-24en_AU
dc.date.statistics2025-02-19en_AU
dc.description.abstractClimate change is affecting the distribution of species and the functioning of ecosystems. For species that are slow growing and poorly dispersed, climate change can force a lag between the distributions of species and the geographic distributions of their climatic envelopes, exposing species to the risk of extinction. Climate also governs the resilience of species and ecosystems to disturbance, such as wildfire. Here we use species distribution modelling and palaeoecology to assess and test the impact of vegetation–climate disequilibrium on the resilience of an endangered fire‐sensitive rainforest community to fires. First, we modelled the probability of occurrence of Athrotaxis spp. and Nothofagus gunnii rainforest in Tasmania (hereon “montane rainforest”) as a function of climate. We then analysed three pollen and charcoal records spanning the last 7,500 cal year BP from within both high (n = 1) and low (n = 2) probability of occurrence areas. Our study indicates that climatic change between 3,000 and 4,000 cal year bp induced a disequilibrium between montane rainforests and climate that drove a loss of resilience of these communities. Current and future climate change are likely to shift the geographic distribution of the climatic envelopes of this plant community further, suggesting that current high‐resilience locations will face a reduction in resilience. Coupled with the forecast of increasing fire activity in southern temperate regions, this heralds a significant threat to this and other slow growing, poorly dispersed and fire sensitive forest systems that are common in the southern mid to high latitudes. © 1999-2025 John Wiley & Sons, Inc or related companies.en_AU
dc.description.sponsorshipResearch was supported by ARC grants DI110100019, IN140100050 and AINSE ALNGRA16/024. MM was also supported by an AINSE PGRA scholarship (#12039). We acknowledge that our work was conducted on Tasmanian Aboriginal lands. We thank Laurie Stahle for providing the Lake Wilks charcoal data. We also thank Jane Elith for constructive discussion about MaxEnt modelling. Data for the OT core will be made available on NEOTOMA (https://www.neotomadb.org/) upon publication. This is a contribution from the PAGES EcoRe3 Working Group (Workshop 1, Finse, Norway 2017).en_AU
dc.format.mediumPrint-Electronicen_AU
dc.identifier.citationMariani, M., Fletcher, M.-S., Haberle, S., Chin, H., Zawadzki, A., & Jacobsen, G. (2019). Climate change reduces resilience to fire in subalpine rainforests. Global Change Biology, 25(6), 2030-2042. doi:10.1111/gcb.14609en_AU
dc.identifier.issn1354-1013en_AU
dc.identifier.issn1365-2486en_AU
dc.identifier.issue6en_AU
dc.identifier.journaltitleGlobal Change Biologyen_AU
dc.identifier.pagination2030-2042en_AU
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14609en_AU
dc.identifier.urihttps://apo.ansto.gov.au/handle/10238/16017en_AU
dc.identifier.volume25en_AU
dc.languageEnglishen_AU
dc.language.isoenen_AU
dc.publisherWileyen_AU
dc.subjectClimatesen_AU
dc.subjectForestsen_AU
dc.subjectEcosystemsen_AU
dc.subjectPlantsen_AU
dc.subjectTemperate Zonesen_AU
dc.subjectFiresen_AU
dc.subjectPollenen_AU
dc.subjectCharcoalen_AU
dc.subjectRecords managementen_AU
dc.subjectTasmaniaen_AU
dc.subjectAustraliaen_AU
dc.subjectClimatic changeen_AU
dc.titleClimate change reduces resilience to fire in subalpine rainforestsen_AU
dc.typeJournal Articleen_AU
dcterms.dateAccepted2019-01-29en_AU
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