Paleoclimate data-model comparison and the role of climate forcings over the past 1500 Years

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dc.contributor.authorPhipps, SJen_AU
dc.contributor.authorMcGregor, HVen_AU
dc.contributor.authorGergis, Jen_AU
dc.contributor.authorGallant, AJEen_AU
dc.contributor.authorNeukom, Ren_AU
dc.contributor.authorStevenson, Sen_AU
dc.contributor.authorAckerley, Den_AU
dc.contributor.authorBrown, JRen_AU
dc.contributor.authorFischer, MJen_AU
dc.contributor.authorvan Ommen, TDen_AU
dc.date.accessioned2014-06-12T01:43:54Zen_AU
dc.date.available2014-06-12T01:43:54Zen_AU
dc.date.issued2013-09-01en_AU
dc.date.statistics2014-06-12en_AU
dc.description.abstractThe past 1500 years provide a valuable opportunity to study the response of the climate system to external forcings. However, the integration of paleoclimate proxies with climate modeling is critical to improving the understanding of climate dynamics. In this paper, a climate system model and proxy records are therefore used to study the role of natural and anthropogenic forcings in driving the global climate. The inverse and forward approaches to paleoclimate data-model comparison are applied, and sources of uncertainty are identified and discussed. In the first of two case studies, the climate model simulations are compared with multiproxy temperature reconstructions. Robust solar and volcanic signals are detected in Southern Hemisphere temperatures, with a possible volcanic signal detected in the Northern Hemisphere. The anthropogenic signal dominates during the industrial period. It is also found that seasonal and geographical biases may cause multiproxy reconstructions to overestimate the magnitude of the long-term preindustrial cooling trend. In the second case study, the model simulations are compared with a coral O-18 record from the central Pacific Ocean. It is found that greenhouse gases, solar irradiance, and volcanic eruptions all influence the mean state of the central Pacific, but there is no evidence that natural or anthropogenic forcings have any systematic impact on El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The proxy climate relationship is found to change over time, challenging the assumption of stationarity that underlies the interpretation of paleoclimate proxies. These case studies demonstrate the value of paleoclimate data-model comparison but also highlight the limitations of current techniques and demonstrate the need to develop alternative approaches. © 2013, American Meteorological Society.en_AU
dc.identifier.citationPhipps, S. J., McGregor, H. V., Gergis, J., Gallant, A. J. E., Neukom, R., Stevenson, S., Ackerley, D., Brown, J. R., Fischer, M. J., & van Ommen, T. D. (2013). Paleoclimate data-model comparison and the role of climate forcings over the past 1500 Years. Journal of Climate, 26(18), 6915-6936. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00108.1en_AU
dc.identifier.govdoc5230en_AU
dc.identifier.issn0894-8755en_AU
dc.identifier.issue18en_AU
dc.identifier.journaltitleJournal of Climateen_AU
dc.identifier.pagination6915-6936en_AU
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00108.1en_AU
dc.identifier.urihttp://apo.ansto.gov.au/dspace/handle/10238/5687en_AU
dc.identifier.volume26en_AU
dc.language.isoenen_AU
dc.publisherAmerican Meterological Societyen_AU
dc.subjectPaleoclimatologyen_AU
dc.subjectClimatesen_AU
dc.subjectClimatic changeen_AU
dc.subjectClimate modelsen_AU
dc.subjectSouthern Hemisphereen_AU
dc.subjectTree ringsen_AU
dc.titlePaleoclimate data-model comparison and the role of climate forcings over the past 1500 Yearsen_AU
dc.typeJournal Articleen_AU
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