Millennial to seasonal scale views of El Niño-Southern Oscillation from central Pacific corals

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dc.contributor.authorMcGregor, HVen_AU
dc.contributor.authorWilcox, Pen_AU
dc.contributor.authorFischer, MJen_AU
dc.contributor.authorPhipps, SJen_AU
dc.contributor.authorGagan, MKen_AU
dc.contributor.authorWittenberg, Aen_AU
dc.contributor.authorFelis, Ten_AU
dc.contributor.authorKölling, Men_AU
dc.contributor.authorWong, HKYen_AU
dc.contributor.authorDevriendt, Len_AU
dc.contributor.authorWoodroffe, CDen_AU
dc.contributor.authorZhao, JXen_AU
dc.contributor.authorFink, Den_AU
dc.contributor.authorGaudry, JJen_AU
dc.contributor.authorChivas, ARen_AU
dc.date.accessioned2024-02-27T06:01:32Zen_AU
dc.date.available2024-02-27T06:01:32Zen_AU
dc.date.issued2022-12-06en_AU
dc.date.statistics2023-02-03en_AU
dc.description.abstractEl Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is naturally highly variable on interannual to decadal scales making it difficult to detect a possible response to climate forcing. Despite the high variability, several lines of evidence from tropical corals, mollusc, lake sediments, and foraminifera suggest that 5,000-3,000 years ago ENSO variance was on average reduced by 60-80% compared to the present day. We investigate the seasonal-to-centennial variation in ENSO amplitude and tropical climate during this ENSO ‘quiet period’ 5,000-3,000 years ago using a new Sr/Ca SST record from a 175-year-long 4,300-year-old coral, and new d18O and Sr/Ca results from a similar-aged ~180-year-long Porites sp. coral. Both corals were discovered on Kiritimati (Christmas) Island, an optimal ENSO ‘centre of action’ in the central tropical Pacific. Together, these corals confirm a reduction in ENSO amplitude and that ENSO amplitude is modulated on multi-decadal scales. Composites of month-by-month changes in Sr/Ca-SST show an unprecedented view of ENSO and detail which seasonal-scale features of ENSO are an inherent part of the system, and which are subject to change under altered climate states. We also investigate the millennial timescale changes in ENSO variance using combine coral oxygen isotope (18O) data from central Pacific corals and a suite of forced and unforced simulations conducted using the CSIRO Mk3L and GFDL CM2.1 climate system models. On millennial timescales, the coral data reveal a statistically significant increase in ENSO variance over the past 6,000 years. This trend is not reproduced by the unforced model simulations but can be reproduced once orbital forcing is accounted for. Together these views of past ENSO may contribute to advances in understanding the response of ENSO to future changes in climate forcings.en_AU
dc.identifier.citationMcGregor, H., Wilcox, P., Fischer, M., Phipps, S., Gagan, M., Wittenberg, A., Felis, T., Kölling, M., Wong, H., Devriendt, L., Woodroffe C., Zhao, J.-X., Fink, D., Gaudry, J., & Chivas, A. (2022). Millennial to seasonal scale views of El Niño-Southern Oscillation from central Pacific corals. Paper presented to AQUA 2022 Conference, 6-8 December 2022, Adelaide. (pp. 73-74). Retrieved from: http://aqua.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/AQUA-2022-conference-program-and-abstract-booklet.pdfen_AU
dc.identifier.conferenceenddate2022-12-08en_AU
dc.identifier.conferencenameAQUA 2022 Conferenceen_AU
dc.identifier.conferenceplaceAdelaide, Australiaen_AU
dc.identifier.conferencestartdate2022-12-06en_AU
dc.identifier.pagination73-73en_AU
dc.identifier.urihttp://aqua.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/AQUA-2022-conference-program-and-abstract-booklet.pdfen_AU
dc.identifier.urihttps://apo.ansto.gov.au/handle/10238/15455en_AU
dc.language.isoenen_AU
dc.subjectSouthern Oscillationen_AU
dc.subjectPacific Oceanen_AU
dc.subjectCoralsen_AU
dc.subjectClimatesen_AU
dc.subjectLakesen_AU
dc.subjectSedimentsen_AU
dc.subjectIslandsen_AU
dc.titleMillennial to seasonal scale views of El Niño-Southern Oscillation from central Pacific coralsen_AU
dc.typeConference Paperen_AU
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