Minimal geological methane emissions during the Younger Dryas–Preboreal abrupt warming event

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dc.contributor.authorPetrenko, VVen_AU
dc.contributor.authorSmith, AMen_AU
dc.contributor.authorSchaefer, Hen_AU
dc.contributor.authorRiedel, Ken_AU
dc.contributor.authorBrook, EJen_AU
dc.contributor.authorBaggenstos, Den_AU
dc.contributor.authorHarth, CMen_AU
dc.contributor.authorHua, Qen_AU
dc.contributor.authorBuizert, Cen_AU
dc.contributor.authorSchilt, Aen_AU
dc.contributor.authorFaïn, Xen_AU
dc.contributor.authorMitchell, Len_AU
dc.contributor.authorBauska, TKen_AU
dc.contributor.authorOrsi, AJen_AU
dc.contributor.authorWeiss, RFen_AU
dc.contributor.authorSeveringhaus, JPen_AU
dc.date.accessioned2022-05-05T23:40:52Zen_AU
dc.date.available2022-05-05T23:40:52Zen_AU
dc.date.issued2017-08-24en_AU
dc.date.statistics2022-05-05en_AU
dc.description.abstractMethane (CH4) is a powerful greenhouse gas and plays a key part in global atmospheric chemistry. Natural geological emissions (fossil methane vented naturally from marine and terrestrial seeps and mud volcanoes) are thought to contribute around 52 teragrams of methane per year to the global methane source, about 10 per cent of the total, but both bottom-up methods (measuring emissions)1 and top-down approaches (measuring atmospheric mole fractions and isotopes)2 for constraining these geological emissions have been associated with large uncertainties. Here we use ice core measurements to quantify the absolute amount of radiocarbon-containing methane (14CH4) in the past atmosphere and show that geological methane emissions were no higher than 15.4 teragrams per year (95 per cent confidence), averaged over the abrupt warming event that occurred between the Younger Dryas and Preboreal intervals, approximately 11,600 years ago. Assuming that past geological methane emissions were no lower than today3,4, our results indicate that current estimates of today’s natural geological methane emissions (about 52 teragrams per year)1,2 are too high and, by extension, that current estimates of anthropogenic fossil methane emissions2 are too low. Our results also improve on and confirm earlier findings5,6,7 that the rapid increase of about 50 per cent in mole fraction of atmospheric methane at the Younger Dryas–Preboreal event was driven by contemporaneous methane from sources such as wetlands; our findings constrain the contribution from old carbon reservoirs (marine methane hydrates8, permafrost9 and methane trapped under ice10) to 19 per cent or less (95 per cent confidence). To the extent that the characteristics of the most recent deglaciation and the Younger Dryas–Preboreal warming are comparable to those of the current anthropogenic warming, our measurements suggest that large future atmospheric releases of methane from old carbon sources are unlikely to occur. © 2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature.en_AU
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was supported by US National Science Foundation Awards 0839031 (J.P.S.), 0838936 (E.B.) and 1245659 (V.V.P.), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellowship (C.B.), the Packard Fellowship for Science and Engineering (V.V.P.), the Marsden Fund Council from New Zealand Government funding administered by the Royal Society of New Zealand (H.S.) and the ANSTO Isotopes in Climate Change and Atmospheric Systems project (A.M.S.). Further support came from NIWA under Climate and Atmosphere Research Programme CAAC1504 (2014/15 SCI). We acknowledge the financial support from the Australian Government for the Centre for Accelerator Science at ANSTO through the National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy.en_AU
dc.identifier.citationPetrenko, V. V., Smith, A. M., Schaefer, H., Riedel, K., Brook, E., Baggenstos, D., Harth, C. M., Hua, Q., Buizert, C., Schilt, A., Fain, X., Mitchell, L., Bauska, T., Orsi, A., Weiss, R. F., & Severinghaus, J. P. (2017). Minimal geological methane emissions during the Younger Dryas–Preboreal abrupt warming event. Nature, 548(7668), 443-446. doi:10.1038/nature23316en_AU
dc.identifier.issn1476-4687en_AU
dc.identifier.issue7668en_AU
dc.identifier.journaltitleNatureen_AU
dc.identifier.pagination443-446en_AU
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1038/nature23316en_AU
dc.identifier.urihttps://apo.ansto.gov.au/dspace/handle/10238/13132en_AU
dc.identifier.volume548en_AU
dc.language.isoenen_AU
dc.publisherSpringer Natureen_AU
dc.subjectAtmospheric chemistryen_AU
dc.subjectMethaneen_AU
dc.subjectCarbon sourcesen_AU
dc.subjectCarbon cycleen_AU
dc.subjectPaleoclimatologyen_AU
dc.subjectIceen_AU
dc.subjectDrill coresen_AU
dc.titleMinimal geological methane emissions during the Younger Dryas–Preboreal abrupt warming eventen_AU
dc.typeJournal Articleen_AU
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