Seismic risks at Lucas Heights

Abstract

The paper discusses the earthquake potential of the Lucas Heights region, the ability of the HIFAR reactor to withstand seismic damage and the consequences of damage if it should occur. The potential for a damaging earthquake, although small, cannot be ruled out entirely and has particular significance because an earthquake could conceivably be a common cause of damage to the reactor, its protective systems and its containment. It is concluded from an assessment of seismic risk that HIFAR complies with international nuclear safety practices regarding risks to individual members of the public, and with the individual risk criteria of the NSW Department of Planning. The margin of compliance is considered sufficient to offset the uncertainties of seismic risk estimation. Assessment of the collective risk to society as a whole is less conclusive, largely because of the lack of a well established basis for societal risk assessment.