A new look at uncertainty in end member mixing models for streamflow partitioning
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Date
2009-07-13
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Inc
Abstract
Chemical and isotope based hydrograph separation methods, such as end member mixing analysis (EMMA1), have been utilized in recent decades because they offer a better explanation of stream chemistry than can be obtained from flow partitions derived using graphical or mathematical filter
hydrograph partitioning techniques (Chapman and Maxwell, 1996; Pinder and Jones, 1969). However, use of such constituent based hydrograph separation methods results in uncertain streamflow partitions, attributable,
in part, to uncertainty in the characteristic chemical or isotope content of source waters (Figure 1) (Soulsby et al., 2003). This paper explores additional causes of uncertainty when using EMMA for flow partitioning. This paper shows that:
• hydrograph partitioning based on measured end member constituent concentrations should not be
assumed to be correct just because the stream chemistry is adequately explained;
• propagating uncertainty estimated from sample variations will underestimate uncertainty in flow
partitions; and
• numerical problems during computation introduce considerable uncertainty into solved end member contributions. Sampling and measurement errors exacerbate the problem. © 2009 Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International CC BY License
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Keywords
Partition, Water quality, Sampling, Isotopes, Streams, Chemistry, Water chemistry
Citation
Adams, G. A., Cornish, P. S., Croke, B. F. W., Hart, M. R., Hughes, C. E., & Jakeman, A. J. (2009). A new look at uncertainty in end member mixing models for streamflow partitioning. Paper presented to the 18th World IMACS Congress and MODSIM09 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand and International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, Cairns Australia 13-17 July 2009. In Anderssen, R. S., R. D. Braddock and L. T. H. Newham (eds) 18th World IMACS Congress and MODSIM09 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand and International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, Cairns Australia 13-17 July 2009, pp. 3039-3045. Retrieved from: https://mssanz.org.au/modsim09/I1/adams_ga.pdf