Regression analysis of nuclear plant capacity factors

Abstract

Operating data on all commercial nuclear power plants of the PWR, HWR, BWR, and GCR types in the Western World are analysed statistically to determine whether the explanatory variables size year of operation vintage and reactor supplier are significant in accounting for the variation in capacity factor. The results are compared with a number of previous studies which analysed only United States reactors. The possibility of specification errors affecting the results is also examined. Although in general the variables considered are statistically significant they explain only a small portion of the variation in the capacity factor. The equations thus obtained should certainly not be used to predict the lifetime performance of future large reactors.