Detecting trends that are nonlinear and asymmetric on diurnal and seasonal time scales

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dc.contributor.authorFischer, MJen_AU
dc.contributor.authorPaterson, AWen_AU
dc.date.accessioned2016-08-08T06:16:24Zen_AU
dc.date.available2016-08-08T06:16:24Zen_AU
dc.date.issued2014-02-22en_AU
dc.description.abstractTrends in climate time series are often nonlinear and temporally-asymmetric, i.e. the trend is different for different seasons and/or hours of the day. Here a method is developed that allows the nonlinearity and temporal asymmetry of a trend to be investigated simultaneously. First, nonlinear trend components are extracted from a univariate time series, by adapting a nonparametric dimension-reduction method. Then, the nonlinear trend components are substituted into a regression model in which the periodic mean component and the periodic variation in the amplitude of the nonlinear trend are modeled using harmonic functions of the seasonal and diurnal periods. Third, trend patterns in the positive and negative anomalies are investigated, by extending the nonlinear trend model using indicator variables. Fourth, a non-local inferential test is developed to test the statistical significance of the trend patterns. The nonlinear trend model is applied to a simulated time series, as well as to long-term high-resolution temperature records from five Southern Hemisphere sites: Lucas Heights, Sydney Airport, Cape Grim, Macquarie Island and Law Dome. Our method should be generally useful for identifying the effect of both climate-related factors and observation/site-related factors on seasonal and diurnal trends in meteorological data series. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.en_AU
dc.identifier.citationFischer, M. J., & Paterson, A. W. (2014). Detecting trends that are nonlinear and asymmetric on diurnal and seasonal time scales. Climate Dynamics, 43(1-2), 361-374. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2086-8en_AU
dc.identifier.govdoc6905en_AU
dc.identifier.issn0930-7575en_AU
dc.identifier.issue22en_AU
dc.identifier.journaltitleClimate Dynamicsen_AU
dc.identifier.pagination361-374en_AU
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2086-8en_AU
dc.identifier.urihttp://apo.ansto.gov.au/dspace/handle/10238/7261en_AU
dc.identifier.volume2en_AU
dc.language.isoenen_AU
dc.publisherSpringeren_AU
dc.subjectClimatesen_AU
dc.subjectPeriodicityen_AU
dc.subjectTemperature zero Ken_AU
dc.subjectSouthern Hemisphereen_AU
dc.subjectSeasonsen_AU
dc.subjectANSTOen_AU
dc.titleDetecting trends that are nonlinear and asymmetric on diurnal and seasonal time scalesen_AU
dc.typeJournal Articleen_AU
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